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Chronic diseases, including non-communicable diseases (NCDs), have arisen as a severe threat to health and socio-economic growth. Telemedicine can provide both the highest level of patient satisfaction and the lowest risk of infection during a pandemic. The factors associated with its usage and patient adherence are not visible in Bangladeshs resource-constrained settings. Therefore, this study aimed to identify perceptions about telemedicine among populations with chronic diseases amid the COVID-19 pandemic. A closed-ended self-reported questionnaire was created, and the questionnaire was written, reviewed, and finalized by a public health investigator, a psychiatrist, and an epidemiologist. The data for this study were collected from individuals using simple random sampling and snowball sampling techniques. Ethics approval was granted, and written/verbal consent was taken before interviews. Most of the participants showed a positive attitude towards telemedicine. People aged 35C54 years old and a higher level of education were less frequently associated with willingness to receive telemedicine services for current chronic disease (WRTCCD) than their counterparts. People living in urban areas and lower-income participants were more strongly associated with WRTCCD. Additionally, people who did not lose their earnings due to the pandemic were less strongly associated with WRTCCD. However, the main strength of this research is that it is a broad exploration of patient interest in several general forms of telehealth. In Bangladesh, there are many opportunities for telemedicine to be integrated into the existing healthcare system, if appropriate training and education are provided for healthcare professionals.
Perceptions about Telemedicine among Populations with Chronic Diseases amid COVID-19: Data from a Cross-Sectional Survey
We describe the London community testing programme developed for COVID-19, audit its effectiveness and report patient acceptability and patient adherence to isolation guidance, based upon a survey conducted with participants. Any patients meeting the Public Health England (PHE) case definition for COVID-19 who did not require hospital admission were eligible for community testing. 2,053 patients with suspected COVID-19 were tested in the community between January and March 2020. Of those tested, 75 (3.6%) were positive. 88% of patients that completed a patient survey felt safe and 82% agreed that community testing was preferable to hospital admission. 97% were able to remain within their own home during the isolation period but just 41% were able to reliably isolate from other members of their household.The London community testing programme allowed widespread testing for COVID-19 while minimising patient transport, hospital admissions and staff exposures. Community testing was acceptable to patients and preferable to admission to hospital. Patients were able to reliably isolate in their home but not from household contacts. The authors believe in the importance, feasibility and acceptability of community testing for COVID-19 as a part of a package of interventions to mitigate a second wave of infection.
Experience of a novel community testing programme for COVID-19 in London: Lessons learnt
Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) represents one of the most frequent chronic illnesses affecting children. The early diagnosis of this disease is crucial, as it plays a key role in preventing the development of a life-threatening acute complication: diabetic ketoacidosis. The etiopathogenetic role of viral infections has long been suggested and emerging data are pointing towards a complex bidirectional relationship between diabetes and COVID-19. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence and severity of new T1DM cases in children in Romania. We analyzed the differences between a group of 312 patients diagnosed with T1DM in the period 2003C2019 and a group of 147 children diagnosed during the pandemic. The data were investigated using statistical analysis of a series of relevant variables. The total number of newly diagnosed T1DM increased by 30.08% in the period March 2020CFebruary 2021 compared to the previous years. The patients in the pandemic group had a higher mean age at the onset of T1DM, were less frequently living in an urban area, and presented a higher mean value of HbA1c. Diabetic ketoacidosis at the onset of T1DM was 67.40% more frequent, and a higher percentage of these patients presented with a severe form. The duration of T1DM symptoms did not differ significantly between the two groups. A number of 8 patients associated SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of T1DM diagnosis.
The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic on the New Cases of T1DM in Children. A Single-Centre Cohort Study
This work eases the feasibility of infrared thermometer application and reliability to introduce a novel design with upgraded applications & functions. The custom-designed compact device -Badge' structured comprises the operative methods through the electronic packages of an optimal level. The physical and social distance measured by the ToF (Time of Flight) infrared laser sensor within 1 m from the subject and the measuring equipment (MLX90632 SMD QFN and VL530LX ToF). When the distance is not maintained, or the physical distance condition is not met, the flashing LED, or vibration should trigger an indication (warning for physical distancing and alteration for pyrexia warning, respectively). Statistical analysis and simulation-based studies criticized the accuracy of 0.5oF and relational model of the independent and dependent variable for this device with significant R2 = 0.99 and P <= 1;values with the lowest accuracy error of 0.2oF and least residual sum of squares 0.01462 values. The portable, lightweight, and dynamic body temperature monitoring altered the application from static to continuous, complete structural design. This alternative provides the best technique to combine worn (personnel) medical devices with primary healthcare instruments to help body temperature measurements that are not contactable, fast, and accurate. It builds a way of processing through the protocol Covid-19. ? 2022 the Author(s).
Contactless temperature and distance measuring device: A low-cost, novel infrared -based -Badge'- shaped structural model for measuring physical distance and body temperature
INTRODUCTION: Neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) are capable of binding to a virus to render incapable of infection. The ability of commercially available SARS-CoV-2 serological tests to detect NAbs has not been widely reported. We sought to correlate the antibodies detected by an automated chemiluminescent immunoassay with NAbs. METHODS: Residual serum samples from 35 patients that had a positive antibody test using the LIAISON? SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 IgG chemiluminescent immunoassay and two antibody-negative control sera were tested for NAbs using a plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). RESULTS: NAbs were detected in 66% (23/35) of the antibody-positive samples. The immunoassay signal value ranged from 21.7 to 131.3 AU/mL (median, 90.5) with significant correlation between it and the PRNT (r = 0.61, p = 0.002). In the samples without NAbs, the immunoassay signal ranged from 16.3 to 66.2 AU/mL (median, 27.2). An immunoassay signal cutoff of > 41 AU/mL was 91% sensitive and 92% specific for the detection of NAbs. DISCUSSION: It is important that correlates of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 be identified and NAbs are considered to be central indicators of such. PRNT is the gold-standard test for identifying NAbs but it cannot be used for large-scale testing of populations. It is necessary to establish relationships between it and widely used commercial serological assays for SARS-CoV-2.
Correlation of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies to an automated chemiluminescent serological immunoassay
INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19 free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared to hospitals with no defined pathway. METHOD: This international multi-centre cohort study included patients undergoing elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types, without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until 19 April 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19 free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theatre, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with COVID-19 patients). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications. RESULTS: Of 9171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2481 were operated in COVID-19 free surgical pathways. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19 free surgical pathways (2.2% versus 4.9%, OR: 0.62 [0.44-0.86]). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses and a propensity-score matched model. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19 free surgical pathways (2.1% versus 3.6%; OR 0.53 [0.36-0.76]). CONCLUSIONS: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19 free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.
1015 Elective Cancer Surgery In COVID-19 Free Surgical Pathways During The SARS-Cov-2 Pandemic: An International, Multi-Centre, Comparative Cohort Study
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and causes substantial morbidity and mortality. At the time this clinical trial was planned, there were no available vaccine or therapeutic agents with proven efficacy, but the severity of the condition prompted the use of several pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions. It has long been hypothesized that the use of convalescent plasma (CP) from infected patients who have developed an effective immune response is likely to be an option for the treatment of patients with a variety of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) of viral etiology. The aim of this study is to assess the efficacy and safety of convalescent plasma in adult patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS/DESIGN: The ConPlas-19 study is a multicenter, randomized, open-label controlled trial. The study has been planned to include 278 adult patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 infection not requiring mechanical ventilation (invasive or non-invasive). Subjects are randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio (139 per treatment arm), stratified by center, to receive intravenously administered CP (single infusion) plus SOC or SOC alone, and are to be followed for 30 days. The primary endpoint of the study is the proportion of patients that progress to category 5, 6, or 7 (on the 7-point ordinal scale proposed by the WHO) at day 15. Interim analyses for efficacy and/or futility will be conducted once 20%, 40%, and 60% of the planned sample size are enrolled and complete D15 assessment. DISCUSSION: This clinical trial is designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of passive immunotherapy with convalescent plasma for the treatment of adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19. The results of this study are expected to contribute to establishing the potential place of CP in the therapeutics for a new viral disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04345523 . Registered on 30 March, 2020. First posted date: April 14, 2020.
Evaluation of convalescent plasma versus standard of care for the treatment of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients: study protocol for a phase 2 randomized, open-label, controlled, multicenter trial
The quality of bacteriophage electron microscopy appears to be on a downward course since the 1980s. This coincides with the introduction of digital electron microscopes and a general lowering of standards, possibly due to the disappearance of several world-class electron microscopists The most important problem seems to be poor contrast. Positive staining is frequently not recognized as an undesirable artifact. Phage parts, bacterial debris, and aberrant or damaged phage particles may be misdiagnosed as bacterial viruses. Digital electron microscopes often seem to be operated without magnification control because this is difficult and inconvenient. In summary, most phage electron microscopy problems may be attributed to human failure. Journals are a last-ditch defense and have a heavy responsibility in selecting competent reviewers and rejecting, or not, unsatisfactory articles.
Murphy's lawif anything can go wrong, it will: Problems in phage electron microscopy
The province of British Columbia, Canada, experienced 2 major health emergency situations during 2003: severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in early 2003 and wildland-urban interface fires during the summer of 2003. The interface fires occurred within the boundaries of the Interior Health Authority, 1 of 5 health authorities responsible for the delivery of health services in their respective areas of the province. The British Columbia Center for Disease Control (BCCDC) managed the SARS crisis in the province. Both organizations subsequently conducted quality management reviews of their handling of these emergency situations. This article reports on the quality management review of health services delivery during the interface fires and explores the role of physicians during regional emergencies. A similar report was published in the Spring 2004 edition of Quality Management in Health Care on the way SARS was managed at the BCCDC. This article also compares managing a foreseeable emergency situation, such as a wildland-urban interface fire, with managing the unknown, which describes the situation during the initial stages of SARS. The realities confronting the unknown, and the need to manage the situation such that learning and discovery environments are allowed to come into being and evolve rapidly, are discussed.
Quality management case studies in health service emergencies: SARS and wildland-urban interface fires.
Background The COVID-19 pandemic threatens the impact of cervical cancer screening and global cervical cancer elimination goals As cervical cancer screening programmes were adjusting to the new situation, we evaluated the intensity, quality, and outcomes of cervical cancer screening in Slovenia in the first seven months of the pandemic Methods Historical observational study on data from a population-based cervical cancer screening registry Number of cervical cytopathology (screening and follow-up), histopathology (diagnostic procedures, invasive procedures and number of newly diagnosed CIN2+ cases) and HPV test results from the entire Slovenian women population between January 1st and September 30th 2020 were compared to a three-year average of the years 2017C19 Findings A two-month screening lock-down between March 12th and May 8th 2020 resulted in an epidemic deficit of screening (-92%), follow-up (-70%), and HPV triage tests (-68%), as well as invasive diagnostic (-47%) and treatment (-15%) of cervical lesions Time to diagnosis and treatment did not increase;times to laboratory results fluctuated but stayed within standards Slovenia has entered the second epidemic intending to add as little as possible to the pandemic deficit of screening smears (-23%) and yearly CIN2+ cases (-10%) Women aged 30C39 were most affected, with the highest pandemic deficit of screening smears (-26%) and yearly CIN2+ cases (-19%) Interpretation The pandemic has deeply affected all levels of our lives New vulnerable groups and inequalities have emerged that require recognition and action To prevent long-term increases in the cervical cancer burden due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it is crucial that organised screening is maintained and monitored in settings where it can be safely and comprehensively provided Funding None
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on organised cervical cancer screening: The first results of the Slovenian cervical screening programme and registry
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to establish a clinically useful nomogram to evaluate the probability of hypertension onset in the Chinese population.MethodsaandaResults: A prospective cohort study was conducted in 2012-2013 and followed up in 2015 to identify new-onset hypertension in 4,123 participants. The dataset was divided into development (n=2,748) and verification (n=1,375) cohorts. After screening risk factors by lasso regression, a multivariate Cox regression risk model and nomogram were established. Among the 4,123 participants, 818 (19.8%) developed hypertension. The model identified 10 risk factors: age, waist-to-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high pulse rate, history of diabetes, family history of hypertension and stroke, intake frequency of bean products, and intensity of physical labor. The C-indices of the model in the development and validation cohorts were 0.744 and 0.768, respectively. After the inclusion of serum calcium and magnesium concentrations, the C-indices in the development and validation cohorts were 0.764 and 0.791, respectively, with areas under the curve for the updated model of 0.907 and 0.917, respectively. The calibration curve showed that the nomogram accurately predicted the probability of hypertension. The updated nomogram was clinically beneficial across thresholds of 10-60%. CONCLUSIONS: The newly developed nomogram has good predictive ability and may effectively assess hypertension risk in high-risk rural areas in China.
Nomogram Including Serum Ion Concentrations to Screen for New-Onset Hypertension in Rural Chinese Populations Over a Short-Term Follow-up
Indeed, it is the economic regulation that shaped present competitive market structure in Malaysia. This market structure hence generated the competition culture in many industries. The structural changes contributed to transition of a regulated market-based to open market- based economy. The transition saw competitive market structure illustrated by the involvement of private and public enterprise as market players in the main and sub sectors. The first sectors were telecommunication and energy. These sectors have shown stable and robust competitiveness in the market whereby private entities and independents telecommunication companies compete in the Malaysian tele-communication market. The competitive culture saw a liberalised and deregulated market based that brought about efficiencies in services, prices and innovations. Secure and continuous pharmaceutical supplies are structural responsibilities shared by all stakeholders in the market. Pharmaceutical industry generated and garnered extensive intellectual rights in terms of drugs, services and medical supplies. Manufacturers in pharmaceutical sectors invests massive funding to develop new creations, this is evident by the COVID-19 vaccines, patent and trademarks rights are thus awarded to the creators of the innovation.The competition culture illustrated through stable and extensive electricity, internet coverage, lower prices, choices of products and services for customers. Amidst the post pandemic crisis, pharmaceutical supply chain has become one of the important sector that require attention in sustainability and accessibility. Documentary examination shows, to date, present pharmaceutical market structure divided between levels 1, 2 and 3 represent monopolistic and oligopolistic structural framework. Summative assessments revealed there are ant Ccompetitive behaviours concerns in the sector. Instituting competition culture and enhance competition regulatory measures are pivotal in advocating a level playing fields in all three levels. Comparative method examination from other jurisdiction experiences and lessons are the parameters of this article. This studies hope to examine and discuss existing constraints in structural framework and competitive culture in pharmaceutical drugs market.The structure of this Article is the following. In Part 1, explain the relationship of patents rights and competition policy and law, industry market structure, market players and relationship between intellectual property patent laws and competition laws. Part 2, explain anti-competitive behaviours from patent holders and challenges and implications on the violations of competition law. Part 3 recapitulates the constraints, issues and structural suggestions for workable competitive culture in the pharmaceutical market. We hope this studies will provide further research gap for future research.
Enhancements of Competition Culture in Pharmaceutical Sector: Anti-Competitive Infringements and Consumer Welfare
Background: Individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) who do not report symptoms throughout the course of infection (asymptomatic) or those who are asymptomatic when they first contract the virus (presymptomatic) are a major public health concern However, few prevalence studies to date have targeted the question of asymptomatic frequency within a community Methods: A stratified, random sample of subjects were sent to testing sites to complete a verbal consent, survey, nasopharyngeal swab, and blood draw Swabs were tested for active viral shedding (PCR) and blood was tested for immunoglobulin G (IgG) specific to SARS-CoV-2 Disease progression and IgG antibody response Results: Of the 2,640 subjects, 24 (0 9%) were PCR-positive alone, 30 (1 1%) were PCR-positive and IgG-positive, and 129 (4 9%) were IgG-positive alone Subjects who reported anosmia were 17 times more likely to test positive Thirtyeight percent of subjects never experienced symptoms despite developing antibodies to the virus, and 75% did not experience symptoms in the early stage of infection Rates of reported asymptomatic infection and comorbidities statistically significantly increased with age Conclusion: This is the first randomized study that pairs PCR and IgG serology that addresses asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, showing a high frequency of asymptomatic disease More research is needed to clarify differences between symptomatic and asymptomatic disease Prevalence and outcomes studies of SARS-CoV-2 should include this group
Frequency of symptoms and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in New Orleans, Louisiana
BACKGROUND: Myosteatosis (intramuscular adiposity) is predictive of chemotherapy toxicity in women undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer (BC). We evaluated a novel, user-friendly and cost-effective technique utilizing a Picture Archiving and Communication Systems (PACS) tool that is readily available in the electronic medical record (EMR), using skeletal muscle density (SMD) to detect myosteatosis and then compared PACS results with those derived from widely used body composition software (SliceOMatic, QC, Canada). METHODS: Using retrospective data from a sample of women with early BC (Stage I-III) who had CT scan and received chemotherapy. Pearson correlation coefficients were used to compare SliceOMatic with PACS results. Associations of PACS results with chemotherapy-related adverse events were evaluated using multivariable (MV) log-binomial models adjusted for age, race, BMI, anthracycline-based therapy, and number of comorbidities. RESULTS: In 338 patients, mean age was 51, 32% were non-white, and 40% had obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2). Correlation of SMD using SliceOMatic whole muscle measurements with PACS psoas muscle was 0.76 (p < .0001) and with PACS erector spinae muscle 0.91 (p < .0001). Using PACS psoas muscle, myosteatosis was associated with any adverse event [RR 1.66, CI 1.22-2.26 (p < .0001)], dose reduction [RR 1.63, CI 1.01-2.65 (p = .05)], and early treatment discontinuation [RR 2.14, CI 1.10-4.14 (p = 0.03)]. Using PACS erector spinae muscle, myosteatosis was associated any adverse event [RR 1.59, CI 1.11-2.27 (p = 0.01)] and dose reduction [RR 1.91, CI 1.07-3.42 (p = .03)]. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Skeletal muscle density measures using PACS correlated strongly with SliceOMatic results and both are similarly predictive of chemotherapy-related adverse events.
Myosteatosis evaluation using erector spinae and psoas muscles to predict adverse events during adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer
Although physical distancing is the key to reducing the risk of virus infection, the commonly used signs to spur physical distancing in services seem ineffective as many customers still refrain from practicing physical distancing This research therefore suggests using regulatory focus (prevention vs promotion) to improve the persuasiveness of these appeals Study 1 creates and validates one multiple-item scale for measuring physical distancing in services, which is then adopted in two subsequent scenario-based experiments Study 2 proves the superior effect of prevention-focused message to both promotion-focused message and conventional message in encouraging physical distancing compliance, which is explained by perceived fear as the underlying psychological mechanism Study 3 further unveils the boundary condition of anthropomorphism in strengthening this superiority (i e Mr Deadly COVID-19, scary face) Given a great deal of uncertain future caused by this epidemic, this research provides relevant implications for fostering the engagement in physical distancing in services ? 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
Using regulatory focus to encourage physical distancing in services: when fear helps to deal with Mr. Deadly COVID-19
In light of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) public health emergency in America, FDA issued Notifying FDA of a Permanent Discontinuance or Interruption in Manufacturing Under Section 506C of the FD&C Act Guidance for Industry in March 2020. This guidance aimed to assist applicants and manufacturers in providing FDA timely, informative notifications about changes in the production of certain drugs and biological products, in turn, help the Agency in its efforts to prevent or mitigate shortages of such products, so as to ensure the stability of the medical product supply chain in America. This guidance was still useful for perfecting interruption in manufacturing reporting system of China.
Introduction of FDA guidance for dealing with drug shortage in public health emergency
AIMS: The authors conducted a thematic review on the effectiveness of Telepsychiatry in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to clarify the effectiveness of Telepsychiatry, providing an evidence base for the growing use of Telepsychiatry. METHOD: The authors searched three databases - Cochrane, PubMed and PsychINFO - using the terms virtual consultation/telepsychiatry/video consultation AND psychiatry/mental illness. The authors excluded all papers that were not in English and that did not focus on the psychiatric consultation. RESULT: 961 papers were identified, reduced to 321 using exclusion criteria and removal of duplicates. Using thematic analysis the authors found five themes that occurred across all papers in relation to the effectiveness of Telepsychiatry. Patient & Clinician Satisfaction There is consistently high patient satisfaction with telepsychiatry but lower clinician satisfaction, often as a result of cynicism and a lack of familiarity. Clinician satisfaction increases when clinicians trial Telepsychiatry and become more positive about its uses. Diagnostic Reliability Telepsychiatry was found to have high levels of inter-rater reliability equivalent to face-to-face consultations for common disorders including mood and psychotic disorders, substance misuse and dementia. It was also found to have high levels of diagnostic reliability across age groups. Outcomes Telepsychiatry has been found to reduce symptoms of common psychiatric disorders and improve quality of life in a variety of environments including emergency departments, inpatient units and prisons. Telepsychiatry increases access to specialised services resulting in quicker access to treatment and reduction in admissions. Technology Without adequate internet connectivity clinicians are unable to conduct an appropriate mental state examination and the therapeutic relationship becomes challenging. Inadequate technology can impact the effectiveness of Telepsychiatry amongst those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and may not have access to appropriate technology. Professional Guidance There is a concerning lack of guidance around the use of Telepsychiatry. Without clear protocols there is a lack of standardisation and clinicians are unwilling to integrate Telepsychiatry into their practice. Main concerns raised are around confidentiality, consent, the appropriateness of certain patient groups and emergencies. CONCLUSION: This review found evidence for the effectiveness of Telepsychiatry with greatest emphasis on technology and patient satisfaction. The main barrier is the reluctance amongst clinicians to facilitate Telepsychiatry into their practice, often due to cynicism and a lack of familiarity. The authors recommend training in the uses of Telepsychiatry and the provision of professional guidance from medical bodies to allay concerns and provide clear standards.
The effectiveness of telepsychiatry: a thematic review
Currently, the global report of COVID-19 cases is around 110 million, and more than 2.43 million related death cases as of February 18, 2021. Viruses continuously change through mutation; hence, different virus of SARS-CoV-2 has been reported globally. The United Kingdom (UK), South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria are the countries from which these emerged variants have been notified and now spreading globally. Therefore, these countries have been selected as a research sample for the present study. The datasets analyzed in this study spanned from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021, and were obtained from the World Health Organization website. The study used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast coronavirus incidence in the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria. ARIMA models with minimum Akaike Information Criterion Correction (AICc) and statistically significant parameters were chosen as the best models in this research. Accordingly, for the new confirmed cases, ARIMA (3,1,14), ARIMA (0,1,11), ARIMA (1,0,10), and ARIMA (1,1,14) models were chosen for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. Also, the model specification for the confirmed death cases was ARIMA (3,0,4), ARIMA (0,1,4), ARIMA (1,0,7), and ARIMA (Brown); models were selected for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. The results of the ARIMA model forecasting showed that if the required measures are not taken by the respective governments and health practitioners in the days to come, the magnitude of the coronavirus pandemic is expected to increase in the study's selected countries.
Forecasting the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic Amidst the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Adoption of ARIMA Model
OBJECTIVE: Highlighting gender inequalities during the pandemic and its relationship with other axes of social inequality will be decisive for its adequate monitoring. The aim of this study was to assess the differences between men and women in the main measures of infection and mortality by COVID-19, considering its temporal evolution, raising awareness about the weaknesses and contradictions between sources of information. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis based on the microdata on COVID cases notified by the National Epidemiological Surveillance Network (RENAVE), the Death Statistics of the National Statistical Institute (INE) and the estimates of excess mortality from the INE and the Daily Mortality Monitoring System (MoMo) microdata. Standardized rates, prevalences and and ratios by sex were calculated for each indicator. The percentage of excess mortality without COVID-19 diagnosis in each sex was calculated. Male/female ratios for symptoms and risk factors of COVID-19 were also calculated. RESULTS: The rate of infection by COVID-19 was higher in women in the three waves of the pandemic, reaching 65% of infections during April and May 2020. Complications were between 1.5 and 2.5 times higher in men, especially in ICU admissions, which were 2.5 times more frequent than in women. Although mortality rates and excess mortality were also higher in men (around 1.8 times), the percentage of excess mortality without COVID-19 diagnosis was higher in women (44% in men vs. 52% in women the first wave). With regard to the symptoms of COVID-19, fever, cough, and dyspnoea were more frequent in men (20%, 10% and 19% more, respectively) compared to sore throat, vomiting or diarrhea that were more prevalent in women (90%, 40% and 10% more, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The analysis disaggregated by sex has made it possible to identify differences between men and women in the diagnosis, presentation and severity of the COVID-19 that can help a better clinical and epidemiological approach to the disease. However, official sources present important gaps when presenting information disaggregated by sex. It is therefore necessary to advance in the inclusion of a gender perspective in the statistics on COVID-19, starting with a necessary but not sufficient condition such as the disaggregation by sex of the data.
[COVID-19 and gender: certainties and uncertainties in monitoring the pandemic.]
On March 15, about 20,000,000 voters cast their vote for the first round of the 2020 French municipal elections. We investigate the extent to which this event contributed to the COVID-19 epidemics in France. To this end, we first predict each departement's own dynamics using information up to the election to calibrate a standard logistic model. We then take advantage of electoral turnout differences between departements to distinguish the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations from that of simultaneously implemented anti-contagion policies. We report a detrimental effect of the election in locations that were at relatively advanced stages of the epidemics by the time of the election. In contrast, we show that the election did not contribute to the epidemics in departements with lower infection levels by March 15. All in all, our estimates suggest that elections accounted for about 4,000 excess hospitalizations by the end of March, which represents 15% of all hospitalizations by this time. They also suggest that holding elections in June may not be as detrimental.
Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite... Contamine? Estimating the impact of French municipal elections on COVID-19 spread in France