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The global outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in 2020 has significantly affected the information environment as well as the daily life of individuals across the world, with information about COVID-19 dominating all media channels. The information provided at the time of a health crisis like COVID-19 is critical in helping people learn about the disease and the recommendations to prevent infection. However, studies have shown that when people are overwhelmed by too much information (referred to as 'information overload'), this leads to adverse effects. This study examined the antecedents and consequences of information overload in the context of COVID-19. A survey was conducted among 627 residents in Seoul, South Korea, one of the earliest affected countries in the global outbreak. The results showed that cognitive capacity and the frequency of online news use and interpersonal communication were significant predictors of information overload. Information overload influenced how information is processed; it was associated with the tendency toward greater heuristic processing and less systematic processing. In addition, people were more likely to enact prevention behaviors when the information was processed systematically, as opposed to heuristically. The results are discussed considering both the theoretical and practical implications.
Antecedents and Consequences of Information Overload in the COVID-19 Pandemic
To address the challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, regulatory authorities, governments, and legislators around the world have implemented temporary changes to the scopes of practice for various health disciplines Our aim was to identify opportunities for collaboration both within and across professional groups by using bibliometrics to compare scope-of-practice scholarship among and within disciplines We conducted a bibliometric analysis using quantitative analytical tools provided by Scopus and examined the growth in both the quality and quantity of scholarship across several disciplines We identified a total of 80 clusters of research, noting differences among the lines of inquiry relating to scope of practice in the various disciplines Although medicine has contributed the greatest volume of articles (2,921) to the corpus of work (4,619), physiotherapy and nursing have contributed proportionately, by percentage, the most research-based content (95 5% and 88 5%, respectively) The foci of interest in one discipline may help disciplines with a less comprehensive research base to advance their scholarship more rapidly Furthermore, this study has postulated a potential methodological opportunity to compare research output across disciplines or specific areas of study based on a linkage between Bradford's Law of scattering and Jenks's analysis of natural breaks
Contrasting Views on Scope of Practice: A Bibliometric Analysis of Allied Health, Nursing, and Medical Literature
Age-Friendly Communities (AFC) initiatives are gaining momentum in Canada and around the globe with many communities making commitments to becoming age-friendly. Aging lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and two-spirit (LGBTQ2+) Canadians are a diverse subpopulation whose social histories and contexts may not have been considered in such initiatives. In response, many community-level organizations have created programs and supports for older LGBTQ2+ persons. Through a survey and environmental scan, we sought to identify and profile such initiatives. In addition, in-depth interviews were held with representatives from community groups to ascertain how community leaders construct and define communities that are both age and LGBTQ2+-inclusive. Participants were also asked to reflect on how their sense of community and support was impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. The findings indicated that many supports for LGBTQ2+ older adults emerged outside of formal AFC initiatives and in response to a perceived normativity among services for older adults.
Age-Friendly and LGBTQ2+ Friendly Community Initiatives in Canada: Preliminary Findings
BACKGROUND respiratory viral infections account for a considerable proportion of pediatric emergency room visits. Illnesses range in severity from mild upper respiratory tract infections to serious lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI). The relationship between viral load and specific viruses to clinical diagnosis made by physicians in this setting is poorly understood. METHODS we applied a real-time, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) panel for 13 common respiratory viruses to 195 frozen, archival nasopharyngeal aspirate specimens obtained from symptomatic children 4 months of age presenting to the emergency room. Mean total viral load and number of viruses per archival nasopharyngeal aspirate specimen were compared between LRTI (n = 70) and non-LRTI (1 or more of upper respiratory tract infection, fever, or cough) (n = 125), as were yield and concordance of qPCR results to viral culture/direct fluorescence assay (DFA). RESULTS children with LRTI had significantly increased total viral load and harbored more viruses than the non-LRTI group. Respiratory syncytial virus-A and -B were significantly associated with LRTI, and parainfluenza virus-1 with non-LRTI. Individual loads of parainfluenza virus-2 and human rhinovirus were increased in LRTI versus non-LRTI. Quantitative PCR yielded more viruses (including coinfections, where a "dominant virus" was typically identified) than viral culture/DFA and documented nucleic acid from pathogens not tested by culture/DFA including human rhinovirus; coronaviruses -OC43, -229E, and -NL63; and metapneumovirus. CONCLUSIONS in symptomatic children presenting to the emergency room, total viral load is related to clinical diagnosis; specific viruses are associated with particular clinical diagnoses, and qPCR has a higher yield than other viral diagnostic methods.
The relationship between respiratory viral loads and diagnosis in children presenting to a pediatric hospital emergency department.
Inflammasomes are multiprotein complexes capable of sensing pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs), danger-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs), and cellular perturbations. Upon stimulation, the inflammasomes activate the production of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1? and IL-18 and induce gasdermin D-mediated pyroptosis. Dysregulated inflammasome signaling could lead to hyperinflammation in response to environmental triggers, thus contributing to the pathogenesis of childhood autoimmune/autoinflammatory diseases. In this review, we group childhood rheumatic diseases into the autoinflammation to autoimmunity spectrum and discuss about the involvement of inflammasomes in disease mechanisms. Genetic mutations in inflammasome components cause monogenic autoinflammatory diseases, while inflammasome-related genetic variants have been implicated in polygenic childhood rheumatic diseases. We highlight the reported associations of inflammasome signaling-related genetic polymorphisms/protein levels with pediatric autoimmune disease susceptibility and disease course. Furthermore, we discuss about the use of IL-1 receptor antagonist as an adjunctive therapy in several childhood autoimmune diseases, including macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) related to COVID-19. A comprehensive multi-cohort comparison on inflammasome gene expression profile in different pediatric rheumatic diseases is needed to identify patient subsets that might benefit from the adjunctive therapy of IL-1? inhibitors.
Inflammasomes and Childhood Autoimmune Diseases: A Review of Current Knowledge
Members of the Flaviviridae (e.g. Dengue virus, West Nile virus, and Hepatitis C virus) contain a positive-sense RNA genome that encodes a large polyprotein. It is now also clear most if not all of these viruses also produce an abundant subgenomic long non-coding RNA. These non-coding RNAs, which are called subgenomicflavivirus RNAs (sfRNAs) or Xrn1-resistant RNAs (xrRNAs), are stable decay intermediates generated from the viral genomic RNA through the stalling of the cellular exoribonuclease Xrn1 at highly structured regions. Several functions of these flavivirus long non-coding RNAs have been revealed in recent years. The generation of these sfRNAs/xrRNAs from viral transcripts results in the repression of Xrn1 and the dysregulation of cellular mRNA stability. The abundant sfRNAs also serve directly as a decoy for important cellular protein regulators of the interferon and RNA interference antiviral pathways. Thus the generation of long non-coding RNAs from flaviviruses, hepaciviruses and pestiviruses likely disrupts aspects of innate immunity and may directly contribute to viral replication, cytopathology and pathogenesis.
Standing your Ground to Exoribonucleases: Function of Flavivirus Long Non-coding RNAs
This essay reflects on the many upheavals of the past year and their implications for critical scholarship on surveillance. The COVID-19 pandemic, anti-science policies, radicalized white supremacists, police killings of people of color, and the resurgence of the racial justice movement all inflect surveillance practices in the contemporary moment. In particular, todays polarized political landscape makes it difficult to condemn surveillance in the service of the public good, but irrespective of ones goals or intentions, the embrace of transparency carries its own risks. Transparency, and scientific vision more broadly, is an extension of the Enlightenment and subsequent scientific revolution, which from the start sought to advance knowledge and consolidate white power through the violent subjugation of nature, women, and racial minorities. One fundamental risk of valorizing transparency is that doing so occludes the ways that relations of domination are indelibly encoded into surveillance systems and practices. Given this, I argue that the project of decolonizing surveillance inquiry should now be our primary focus as a field.
Reckoning with COVID, Racial Violence, and the Perilous Pursuit of Transparency
ABSTRACT Background: The COVID-19 pandemic and social distancing can have adverse impacts on adult people with epilepsy (PWE). Objective: To investigate the seizure frequency, the perceived well-being, and the presence of anxiety symptoms in PWE during the COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: Data from a questionnaire on the repercussions of COVID-19 were analyzed in relation to the clinical variables of 114 PWE, with a significance level of p<0.05. Results: There were 26 cases of COVID-19 in PWE and/or family members (22.8%). During the pandemic period, 11 PWE (9.6%) reported an increase in seizures, but unrelated to COVID-19. Also, the number of crises in PWE with previous depressive disorders increased, with differences between epilepsies. Symptoms of depression, impaired well-being, and concern for their lifestyle were significant in PWE with a previous diagnosis of depression. Impaired well-being, increased anxiety, nervousness, and tiredness, and the concern with being infected were mentioned by a high number of PWE in the pandemic. Conclusion: Seizure frequency increased during the pandemic period, a finding associated with clinical variables of epilepsy. PWE with depression had worse perceived well-being. Changes in well-being and increased anxiety and nervousness were frequent in the pandemic.
The impact of COVID-19 on patients with epilepsy/ O impacto da COVID-19 em pacientes com epilepsia
Background: Previous studies have compared CT findings of COVID-19 pneumonia with those of other infections; however, to our knowledge, no studies have included non-infectious organizing pneumonia (OP) as a comparison group. Objective: To compare chest CT features of COVID-19, influenza, and OP using a multireader design, and to assess radiologists' performance in distinguishing between these conditions. Methods: This retrospective study included 150 chest CT examinations in 150 patients (mean age 5816 years) with diagnosis of COVID-19, influenza, or non-infectious OP (50 randomly selected abnormal CT examinations per diagnosis). Six thoracic radiologists independently assessed CT examinations for 14 individual CT findings and Radiologic Society of North America (RSNA) COVID-19 category and recorded a favored diagnosis. CT characteristics of the three diagnoses were compared using random effects models; readers' diagnostic performance was assessed. Results: COVID-19 pneumonia was significantly different (p<.05) from influenza pneumonia for seven of 14 chest CT findings, though different (p<.05) from OP for 4 of 14 findings [central or diffuse distribution in 10% and 7% of COVID-19 vs 20% and 21% of OP; unilateral distribution in 1% of COVID-19 vs 7% of OP; non-tree-in-bud nodules in 32% of COVID-19 vs 53% of OP; tree-in-bud nodules in 6% of COVID-19 vs 14% of OP]. A total of 70% of cases of COVID-19, 33% of influenza, and 47% of OP had an RSNA COVID-19 category of typical (p<.001). Mean percentage of correct favored diagnoses compared to actual diagnoses was 44% for COVID-19, 29% for influenza, and 39% for OP. Mean diagnostic accuracy of favored diagnoses was 70% for COVID-19 pneumonia and 68% for both influenza and OP. Conclusion: CT findings of COVID-19 substantially overlap with influenza and, to a greater extent, with OP. Radiologists' diagnostic accuracy was low in a study sample containing equal proportions of these three types of pneumonia. Clinical Impact: Recognized challenges in diagnosing COVID-19 by CT are furthered by our observed strong overlap between CT appearances of COVID-19 and OP. This challenge may be particularly evident in clinical settings with substantial proportions of patients with potential causes of OP such as ongoing cancer therapy or autoimmune conditions.
Comparison of Chest CT Findings of COVID-19, Influenza, and Organizing Pneumonia: A Multireader Study
There are several existing typologies of dual-earner couples focused on how they dually manage work and family; however, these all assume that couples can outsource childcare during normal work hours and that work is largely conducted outside of the home. Early attempts to control COVID-19 altered these assumptions with daycares/schools closing and the heavy shift to remote work. This calls into question whether couples tended to fall back on familiar gendered patterns to manage work and family, or if they adopted new strategies for the unique pandemic situation. We addressed this question using a sample of 274 dual-earner couples with young children. We content coded couples' qualitative responses about their plans for managing childcare and work commitments and used these codes in a latent class analysis to identify subgroups. Seven classes were identified, with 36.6% of the sample using strategies where women did most or all childcare, 18.9% of the sample using strategies that were not clearly gendered or egalitarian, and 44.5% of the sample using unique egalitarian strategies. We also obtained data from 133 of these couples approximately 7 weeks later regarding their well-being and job performance. Results suggested that women in the Remote Wife Does It All class had the lowest well-being and performance. There were nuanced differences between the egalitarian strategies in their relationships with outcomes, with the Alternating Days egalitarian category emerging as the overall strategy that best preserved wives' and husbands' well-being while allowing both to maintain adequate job performance. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).
Work-family strategies during COVID-19: Examining gender dynamics among dual-earner couples with young children.
Life of a health care worker is very different compared with any other professional. This is distinct not from the perspective of an overwhelming level of personal and professional accomplishment, but from the huge amount of psychological stress and anxiety involved in it. Earlier studies show that health workers, particularly medical practitioners, are vulnerable to mental health developments. Furthermore, workplace stress has been related to emotional exhaustion, which can result in a lack of enthusiasm for work, feelings of powerlessness, depression, and defeat. Emotional factors inherent to the job, responsibilities related to patient needs, feeling of being overburdened, organizational responsibilities, and issues related to working relationships and career growth are commonly identified as occupational stressors among medical professionals. Emotional fatigue is commonly referred to as burnout among professionals. The present paper is an initiative to understand the various dynamics of work life balance during pandemic and to undertake the empirical study on the topic. In this regard, the authors undertook the secondary sources for preparing the paper. The present initiative will be a value addition to the existing literature. ? 2022 by SPC (Sami Publishing Company).
Work Life Balance of Health Care Workers in the New Normal: A Review of Literature
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is the greatest public health crisis of the last 100 years. Countries have responded with various levels of lockdown to save lives and stop health systems from being overwhelmed. At the same time, lockdowns entail large socioeconomic costs. One exit strategy under consideration is a mobile phone app that traces the close contacts of those infected with COVID-19. Recent research has demonstrated the theoretical effectiveness of this solution in different disease settings. However, concerns have been raised about such apps because of the potential privacy implications. This could limit the acceptability of app-based contact tracing in the general population. As the effectiveness of this approach increases strongly with app uptake, it is crucial to understand public support for this intervention. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate the user acceptability of a contact-tracing app in five countries hit by the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a largescale, multicountry study (N=5995) to measure public support for the digital contact tracing of COVID-19 infections. We ran anonymous online surveys in France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We measured intentions to use a contact-tracing app across different installation regimes (voluntary installation vs automatic installation by mobile phone providers) and studied how these intentions vary across individuals and countries. RESULTS: We found strong support for the app under both regimes, in all countries, across all subgroups of the population, and irrespective of regional-level COVID-19 mortality rates. We investigated the main factors that may hinder or facilitate uptake and found that concerns about cybersecurity and privacy, together with a lack of trust in the government, are the main barriers to adoption. CONCLUSIONS: Epidemiological evidence shows that app-based contact tracing can suppress the spread of COVID-19 if a high enough proportion of the population uses the app and that it can still reduce the number of infections if uptake is moderate. Our findings show that the willingness to install the app is very high. The available evidence suggests that app-based contact tracing may be a viable approach to control the diffusion of COVID-19.
Acceptability of App-Based Contact Tracing for COVID-19: Cross-Country Survey Study
The members of the interleukin-17 (IL-17) cytokine family and their receptors were identified decades ago. Unlike IL-17 receptor A (IL-17RA), which heterodimerizes with IL-17RB, IL-17RC, and IL-17RD and mediates proinflammatory gene expression, IL-17RB plays a distinct role in promoting tumor growth and metastasis upon stimulation with IL-17B. However, the molecular basis by which IL-17RB promotes oncogenesis is unknown. Here, we report that IL-17RB forms a homodimer and recruits mixed-lineage kinase 4 (MLK4), a dual kinase, to phosphorylate it at tyrosine-447 upon treatment with IL-17B in vitro. Higher amounts of phosphorylated IL-17RB in tumor specimens obtained from patients with pancreatic cancer correlated with worse prognosis. Phosphorylated IL-17RB recruits the ubiquitin ligase tripartite motif containing 56 to add lysine-63-linked ubiquitin chains to lysine-470 of IL-17RB, which further assembles NF-B activator 1 (ACT1) and other factors to propagate downstream oncogenic signaling. Consequentially, IL-17RB mutants with substitution at either tyrosine-447 or lysine-470 lose their oncogenic activity. Treatment with a peptide consisting of amino acids 403 to 416 of IL-17RB blocks MLK4 binding, tyrosine-477 phosphorylation, and lysine-470 ubiquitination in vivo, thereby inhibiting tumorigenesis and metastasis and prolonging the life span of mice bearing pancreatic tumors. These results establish a clear pathway of how proximal signaling of IL-17RB occurs and provides insight into how this pathway provides a therapeutic target for pancreatic cancer.
Characterization of initial key steps of IL-17 receptor B oncogenic signaling for targeted therapy of pancreatic cancer.
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly spread among people living in many countries. Chest radiography (CXR) image is an alternative diagnosis option to observe COVID-19. However, CXR usually requires an expert radiologist to distinguish the lesion from viral pneumonia and COVID-19 because the symptoms of COVID-19 pneumonia may be similar to other types of viral pneumonia. In this study, three different convolutional neural network based models (VGG19, ResNet50, and InceptionV3) have been proposed for the detection of coronavirus pneumonia infected patient using chest X-ray. In addition, this studies can potentially find the correlation between COVID-19 pneumonia and viral pneumonia using canonical correlation analysis. Considering the performance results obtained the best performance as an accuracy of 0.97, sensitivity of 0.97, specificity of 0.93, and F1-score value of 0.97 for VGG19 pre-trained model. The experiment results also show that the viral lesion of Viral pneumonia and COVID-19 is less similarity. ? 2021 IEEE.
COVID-19 Classification using DCNNs and Exploration Correlation using Canonical Correlation Analysis
UNLABELLED West Nile virus (WNV) is the most important cause of epidemic encephalitis in North America. Innate immune responses, which are critical for control of WNV infection, are initiated by signaling through pathogen recognition receptors, RIG-I and MDA5, and their downstream adaptor molecule, MAVS. Here, we show that a deficiency of MAVS in hematopoietic cells resulted in increased mortality and delayed WNV clearance from the brain. In Mavs(-/-) mice, a dysregulated immune response was detected, characterized by a massive influx of macrophages and virus-specific T cells into the infected brain. These T cells were polyfunctional and lysed peptide-pulsed target cells in vitro However, virus-specific T cells in the brains of infected Mavs(-/-) mice exhibited lower functional avidity than those in wild-type animals, and even virus-specific memory T cells generated by prior immunization could not protect Mavs(-/-) mice from WNV-induced lethal disease. Concomitant with ineffective virus clearance, macrophage numbers were increased in the Mavs(-/-) brain, and both macrophages and microglia exhibited an activated phenotype. Microarray analyses of leukocytes in the infected Mavs(-/-) brain showed a preferential expression of genes associated with activation and inflammation. Together, these results demonstrate a critical role for MAVS in hematopoietic cells in augmenting the kinetics of WNV clearance and thereby preventing a dysregulated and pathogenic immune response. IMPORTANCE West Nile virus (WNV) is the most important cause of mosquito-transmitted encephalitis in the United States. The innate immune response is known to be critical for protection in infected mice. Here, we show that expression of MAVS, a key adaptor molecule in the RIG-I-like receptor RNA-sensing pathway, in hematopoietic cells is critical for protection from lethal WNV infection. In the absence of MAVS, there is a massive infiltration of myeloid cells and virus-specific T cells into the brain and overexuberant production of proinflammatory cytokines. These results demonstrate the important role that MAVS expression in hematopoietic cells has in regulating the inflammatory response in the WNV-infected brain.
MAVS Expressed by Hematopoietic Cells Is Critical for Control of West Nile Virus Infection and Pathogenesis.
Despite the existence of effective treatment for postpartum depression, few women seek professional help, indicating the need for a new and innovative format of treatment that can overcome help-seeking barriers. This article presents the study protocol for a blended cognitiveCbehavioral intervention for the treatment of postpartum depression, by integrating face-to-face sessions with a web-based program (Be a Mom) into one treatment protocol. This study will be a two-arm, noninferiority randomized controlled trial comparing blended intervention to usual treatment for postpartum depression provided in healthcare centers. Portuguese postpartum adult women diagnosed with postpartum depression (according to the DSM-5 diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder) will be recruited during routine care appointments in local healthcare centers and will be eligible to participate. Measures will be completed at baseline, postintervention, and at three- and six-month follow-ups. The primary outcome will be depressive symptoms. Secondary outcomes will include anxiety symptoms, fatigue, quality of life, marital satisfaction, maternal self-efficacy, and motherCchild bonding. Cost-effectiveness analysis and mediator and moderator analysis will be conducted. This study will provide insight into the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of a blended psychological intervention in the Portuguese context and increase the empirically validated treatment options for postpartum depression.
A Blended CognitiveCBehavioral Intervention for the Treatment of Postpartum Depression: Study Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial
BACKGROUND: Coronary artery (CA) aneurysms in children are a rare but potentially life-threatening finding and are highly associated with Kawasaki disease (KD). CASE PRESENTATION: We describe a four-year-old female with a vasculitis and CA aneurysms. She had a prolonged course with recurrent fever and systemic inflammation several times upon discontinuation of steroid treatment. Due in part to the CA aneurysms, she initially was diagnosed with KD but due to the unusual clinical course, further evaluation was performed. Abdominal and chest MRI/A revealed diffuse aortitis suggestive of a large vessel vasculitis, specifically Takayasu arteritis. With treatment targeted for Takayasu arteritis, there was resolution of fever and inflammation and the CA aneurysms improved. CONCLUSIONS: This case demonstrates the utility in broadening the differential diagnosis in cases of presumed KD with CA involvement in which the clinical course is atypical for KD.
Coronary artery aneurysms in children is not always Kawasaki disease: a case report on Takayasu arteritis
Objectives: The high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in homeless communities requires adapted prevention strategies for field-based healthcare workers (HCWs). Rapid serological tests (RSTs) could be an invaluable tool for HCWs to control COVID-19 transmission. This study assesses the benefits of RSTs for HCWs in Marseille, France. Study design: Mixed-methods exploratory analysis. Methods: A mixed-methods approach was used, combining quantitative and qualitative data, to prospectively analyse acceptability of RSTs, prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and prevention behaviours in 106 HCWs from 18 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and health or social institutions in Marseille from June 1 to July 31, 2020. For the qualitative dimension, semi-structured individual interviews were conducted with 21 HCWs from 7 of 18 NGOs and institutions. Results: Most of the 106 HCWs in the quantitative study reported better prevention measures at work than in their homes. Despite this, the majority reported that they felt unsafe at work in terms of COVID-19 infection risk. SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence among the study population was 6.1%. Only four HCWs refused to have an RST.The 21 qualitative interviews highlighted that HCWs were not afraid of RSTs or of any possible stigma associated with a positive serological status, although they were sometimes suspicious about RST validity. Downplaying their risk of infection was a coping strategy to keep both a sense of control and remain motivated at work. Conclusions: RSTs should be adopted as an additional tool in the strategy to protect both HCWs and healthcare service users. Additional follow-up of these observational findings is needed, especially with the increasing prevalence of vaccination in HCWs.
SARS-CoV-2 rapid serological tests for field-based healthcare workers in homeless communities: a mixed-methods exploratory analysis
BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected more than 200 countries and has infected more than 2,800,000 people as of April 24, 2020. It was first identified in Wuhan City in China in December 2019. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to identify the top 15 countries with spatial mapping of the confirmed cases. A comparison was done between the identified top 15 countries for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries, and an advanced autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for predicting the COVID-19 disease spread trajectories for the next 2 months. METHODS: The comparison of recent cumulative and predicted cases was done for the top 15 countries with confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19. The spatial map is useful to identify the intensity of COVID-19 infections in the top 15 countries and the continents. The recent reported data for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries for the last 3 months was represented and compared between the top 15 infected countries. The advanced ARIMA model was used for predicting future data based on time series data. The ARIMA model provides a weight to past values and error values to correct the model prediction, so it is better than other basic regression and exponential methods. The comparison of recent cumulative and predicted cases was done for the top 15 countries with confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19. RESULTS: The top 15 countries with a high number of confirmed cases were stratified to include the data in a mathematical model. The identified top 15 countries with cumulative cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19 were compared. The United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, China, and Russia saw a relatively fast spread of the disease. There was a fast recovery ratio in China, Switzerland, Germany, Iran, and Brazil, and a slow recovery ratio in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Russia, and Italy. There was a high death rate ratio in Italy and the United Kingdom and a lower death rate ratio in Russia, Turkey, China, and the United States. The ARIMA model was used to predict estimated confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries for the top 15 countries from April 24 to July 7, 2020. Its value is represented with 95%, 80%, and 70% confidence interval values. The validation of the ARIMA model was done using the Akaike information criterion value; its values were about 20, 14, and 16 for cumulative confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries of COVID-19, respectively, which represents acceptable results. CONCLUSIONS: The observed predicted values showed that the confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries will double in all the observed countries except China, Switzerland, and Germany. It was also observed that the death and recovery rates were rose faster when compared to confirmed cases over the next 2 months. The associated mortality rate will be much higher in the United States, Spain, and Italy followed by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The forecast analysis of the COVID-19 dynamics showed a different angle for the whole world, and it looks scarier than imagined, but recovery numbers start looking promising by July 7, 2020.
Prediction of the COVID-19 Pandemic for the Top 15 Affected Countries: Advanced Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model
Currently, we witness the severe spread of the pandemic of the new Corona virus, COVID-19, which causes dangerous symptoms to humans and animals, its complications may lead to death. Although convolutional neural networks (CNNs) is considered the current state-of-the-art image classification technique, it needs massive computational cost for deployment and training. In this paper, we propose an improved hybrid classification approach for COVID-19 images by combining the strengths of CNNs (using a powerful architecture called Inception) to extract features and a swarm-based feature selection algorithm (Marine Predators Algorithm) to select the most relevant features. A combination of fractional-order and marine predators algorithm (FO-MPA) is considered an integration among a robust tool in mathematics named fractional-order calculus (FO). The proposed approach was evaluated on two public COVID-19 X-ray datasets which achieves both high performance and reduction of computational complexity. The two datasets consist of X-ray COVID-19 images by international Cardiothoracic radiologist, researchers and others published on Kaggle. The proposed approach selected successfully 130 and 86 out of 51 K features extracted by inception from dataset 1 and dataset 2, while improving classification accuracy at the same time. The results are the best achieved on these datasets when compared to a set of recent feature selection algorithms. By achieving 98.7%, 98.2% and 99.6%, 99% of classification accuracy and F-Score for dataset 1 and dataset 2, respectively, the proposed approach outperforms several CNNs and all recent works on COVID-19 images.
COVID-19 image classification using deep features and fractional-order marine predators algorithm